Middlesbrough vs Southampton: Championship play-off semi-final first leg preview, predictions and bet builder tips

Ladbrokes brings you an in-depth match preview for Middlesbrough vs Southampton including predictions, lineups and expert bet builder tips.

The play-offs are always the most captivating part of the Championship season, and with both Middlesbrough and Southampton arriving at this semi-final in decent form, the Riverside may well be playing host to another cracker on Saturday afternoon.

Below, you'll find our detailed Middlesbrough vs Southampton bet builder, with our experts predicting a tense draw to set up an unmissable second leg next week.

• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Southampton

• Competition: Championship play-offs (first leg)

• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026

• Kick-off: 12:30 BST

• Venue: Riverside Stadium

Our prediction: Middlesbrough 1-1 Southampton

Middlesbrough

Our predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Brynn / Ayling, Fry, Malanda / Brittain, Browne, Morris, Targett / Whittaker, Conway / Strelec

Southampton

Our predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Peretz / Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Manning / Charles, Jander / Fellows, Azaz, Scienza / Larin

To go along with our predicted scoreline of 1-1 in Saturday afternoon's opening leg, the first pick of our bet builder is for both teams to score, with Middlesbrough and Southampton both having scored over 70 goals in their 46 league matches this term.

While neither side actually had a player break 15 goals, collectively both Boro and Southampton were among the four highest scoring teams in the league, so we expect the frontlines to cause problems once again.

You have to go back to January for the last time Southampton failed to score in a game, and with Middlesbrough scoring in 18 of their last 22, the two goalkeepers could be in for quite busy afternoons - so with that in mind, we're backing BTTS.

Finn Azaz has been Southampton's main man this season, finishing the season as their top scorer and almost sending them to the FA Cup final with a wonder goal against Man City - so despite not scoring in his last five Championship matches, we're backing the Irishman to have at least one shot on target at the Riverside.

Returning to his former stomping ground, Azaz will be desperate to lead his team back to St. Mary's with an advantage, and with the attacking midfielder averaging almost a shot on target per game this season, tipping him to test the keeper here seems a smart choice.

Azaz loves to try his luck, averaging just under three shots per game in this season's Championship, and with so much of Southampton's eye-catching attacking play coming through the 25-year-old, a Finn Azaz shot on target is selected for our play-off semi-final bet builder.

Moving onto the card markets, and we're expecting former Leeds United man Luke Ayling to pick up yet another yellow card in a Middlesbrough shirt, taking his tally for the season to 11.

The 34-year-old has been a mainstay in the Middlesbrough defence this term, featuring in 43 of their 46 Championship games, and will likely be deployed as one of the wide centre-backs in a back three - which could spell trouble for the veteran against such tricky opponents.

Whether it's Tom Fellows, Kuryu Matsuki, or the frighteningly sharp Leo Scienza on his side, Luke Ayling will face a real test keeping his opposite number quiet, and he'll have to maintain his average of winning two tackles per game if he wants to shut the Saints out. Just over a foul committed every other game isn't bad going for a wide central defender, but on such a big occasion, we're tipping him to overstep the mark - picking up a card in the process.

Rounding off our Middlesbrough vs Southampton preview and bet builder tips, we're predicting a hard-fought draw at the Riverside to set up a must-watch encounter at St. Mary's next week, with two excellent sides cancelling each other out.

Boro did demolish Southampton 4-0 back in January, but that was the first game between the teams that has been separated by more than one goal since 2011, so history tells us this one will be tight.

Both teams earned exactly 80 points in the Championship this season, with the sides separated by a goal-difference margin of one goal, and as they enter the weekend in decent form, we can't separate them. Boro have only lost one of their last five, while Southampton are unbeaten in 19 league games, proving the resilience of both sides - so we're backing a draw on Saturday afternoon, with both teams playing it pretty safe.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.