Cheltenham

Ten of the last 11 renewals have gone to Willie Mullins (six) and Dan Skelton (four) so it may be best not to stray far from the obvious. Murcia went into a few notebooks for this when fourth to Bowensonfire (who should also go well) at the Dublin Racing Festival so it's potentially significant that Paul Townend switches to KARBAU now. This 6yo was placed twice in Grade 1 novices last spring but still posted a career-best RPR when second in a Naas Grade 3 on his reappearance in January. He's entitled to come on for that first outing in nine months and is preferred to unexposed Skelton novice Sinnatra. The shortlist is completed by Joyeuse, who won a major 2m handicap last season and showed better signs at Ascot last time. [Andrew Sheret]