ATP Finals betting preview: Ill-prepared Nadal top seed
The ATP Finals start in Turin on Sunday when the world’s top eight players compete in the last tournament of the year.
World number one Carlos Alcaraz pulled out of the indoor event with an injury he sustained at the Paris Masters and was replaced by Taylor Fritz.
Here, we look at all eight contenders and the latest odds.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal has played just one singles match since losing to Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round of the US Open in August so expectations are hardly sky high as he looks to reach at least the final to stand a chance of overtaking Alcaraz as world number one.
The 36-year-old Spaniard, who became a father for the first time last month, won the Australian Open and French Open to move to a record 22 majors, but as usual injuries have taken their toll, latterly an abdominal problem which saw him pull out of his Wimbledon semi-final against Nick Kyrgios.
Chances: Nadal has never won the tournament in 10 attempts and it looks unlikely he will break that duck despite being the top seed.
Tsitsipas has been a consistent performer in 2022 but has won just two titles, retaining his Masters 1000 crown in Monte Carlo which he followed with a win on the grass courts of Mallorca in June.
Since then, the Greek has lost his last three finals and was beaten in three sets by Novak Djokovic in the last four of last week’s Paris Masters.
Chances: Won this tournament in London in 2019, but the feeling remains that he struggles against the world’s elite players.
What a year it’s been for the 23-year-old Norwegian who was runner-up at Roland Garros and the US Open which saw him rise to second in the world rankings, although he has subsequently dropped a couple of places.
Ruud is primarily known as a clay-courter and all but one of his nine titles have come on that surface, but this year’s performance at Flushing Meadows proved he can also compete on hard.
Chances: Reached the semi-finals on his debut last year when he beat Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev, but was outplayed by Daniil Medvedev in the last four. Flopped in Paris last week and his form has been poor since New York, so will do well to get out of his group.
The Russian has had a disappointing season by his standards, winning just two titles, although he reached the Australian Open final at the start of the year.
Medvedev, like Nadal a new father, had a mixed build-up to Turin, losing to Stan Wawrinka (Metz) and Alex de Minaur (Paris) in the opening round but in between reached the last four in Astana and three weeks later won the title at the Vienna indoors.
Chances: Won this tournament in 2020 in the last time the O2 Arena hosted the event and lost to Alexander Zverev in last year’s final, so has to be considered as one of the main contenders.
The 22-year-old Canadian had not won a title until this year, but in a breakout season now has four to his name – all of them indoors, including back-to-back successes in Basel and Antwerp last month which lifted him to a career-high sixth in the world rankings.
A semi-finalist at the Paris Masters, Auger-Aliassime makes his Finals debut as one of the form players of the eight.
Chances: Will be optimistic about his chances of getting out of the group.
A quarter-finalist at both the French Open and US Open, Rublev has enjoyed an excellent year on the circuit during which two of his four titles came indoors (Marseille, Gijon).
All 12 of the Russian’s tournament victories have been regular ATP Tour events and he has never gone beyond the quarter-finals of a grand slam, so whether he can get out of his group for the first time in three attempts remains to be seen.
Chances: A semi-final contender but unlikely to go further unless he raises his game to another level.
The 21-time major winner has dropped to eighth in the world standings, his lowest standing in four years, but it should not be forgotten the controversial Serb was not allowed to compete in Australia and Flushing Meadows, while his Wimbledon triumph came without ranking points.
However, Djokovic won back-to-back titles in Tel Aviv and Astana before losing to Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final, so he remains in excellent form.
Chances: Despite a troubled year because of his Covid vaccination status, five-time champion Djokovic is the man to beat.
Makes his ATP Finals debut on the back of Alcaraz’s withdrawal, but has enjoyed his best year on tour during which he won three titles, including a Masters 1000 at Indian Wells where he beat Nadal in the final.
The American made his first grand slam quarter-final at Wimbledon in the summer, although his build-up to Turin was marred by a shock defeat to Gilles Simon at the Paris Masters.
Chances: Has beaten Nadal, Rublev (twice) and Auger-Aliassime this year, so is not without hope.
