Fury v Joshua: The numbers behind December’s big fight

The two British heavyweights have agreed a purse split and all that stands in the way of an official announcement is some haggling over the date.

Here, we’ve analysed the recent performances of both fighters to predict what could happen when they finally step into the ring together.

Tale of the tape

While both men tower over most of their opponents, Fury has a clear size advantage here. The second-tallest heavyweight champion in history (behind Russian giant Nicolai Valuev), the Gypsy King is three inches taller than Joshua and boasts a similar advantage in reach.

This will require some adjustment from AJ, who has been taller than all of the opponents he has faced since his memorable win over Wladimir Klitschko in 2017.

Joshua is the younger fighter by around 14 months and has less experience as a professional boxer. AJ turned professional in 2013 having won gold as an amateur at the London 2012 Olympics, by which point Fury had already contested (and won) 21 bouts.

How long could the fight last?

Looking back at their previous full-length fights, one round in particular stands out as a likely point for an early stoppage. The seventh is the only round in which both men have seen multiple fights end early, with a combined six being stopped here. This includes two of the last three knockouts in Joshua’s fights and the second instalment of Fury’s trilogy against Deontay Wilder.

However, there’s a good chance that these two will give us a full 12 rounds, as this has happened in two of Fury’s last six outings and three of Joshua’s most recent four.

Which rounds could be the most explosive?

WAs part of our Fury v Joshua betting preview we’ve also dug into the punch data from each boxer’s last five fights, skipping over Fury’s second-round win over Tom Schwarz. On average there has been a clear pattern in which both boxers have ramped up the frequency of their punching towards the third round before dropping off in the fourth.

If this ends up being a drawn-out contest then the ninth round is another in which both have tended to throw a lot of punches. This is where AJ has tended to peak lately, while Fury has maintained the pressure through the 10th and 11th rounds.

How do their fighting styles compare?

Around six in every 10 punches that Joshua has thrown over his last five fights have been jabs, while a similar proportion of Fury’s have been power punches.

However this is just the overall ratio, which we can break down by round to see how their approaches differ. Both jab much more frequently in the opening two rounds as they size up their opponents before starting to swing more in the third.

However, while Fury never returns to jabbing and becomes increasingly focused on trying to knock his opponent down as the fight wears on, Joshua continues to favour precision over power. Therefore, the longer this fight goes on, the more their styles should diverge, with the Gypsy King looking for the knockout blow while his opponent makes use of the jab.

Will we see a late knockout?

This increasing focus on power punches by Fury in the latter stages of his recent fights aligns with a vulnerability of Joshua’s. In the closing rounds we have seen AJ soak up powerful strikes at a much higher rate, which is exactly when Fury has been the most dangerous.

It would therefore be unwise for a tiring Joshua to open up in the later rounds in search of a knockout blow. Fury is the 2/7 favourite for a reason so if there is to be any chance of an upset here then AJ will need to show that he can keep his opponent at a distance.

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