Strictly Come Dancing: What’s the secret to success?

Helen Skelton and Fleur East remain the 7/2 co-favourites in the Strictly Come Dancing betting to win the Glitterball Trophy, but Corrie star Will Mellor (5/1) is the most popular pick among Ladbrokes punters.

We’ve crunched the numbers behind every dance to date to predict how this year’s competition will unfold.

Who are the judges on Strictly Come Dancing?

Success on Strictly requires a couple to impress both the judges and the viewers at home, with scores and votes combined at the end of each episode. As the judges have their say first, let’s start by looking at who will be assessing each performance in the order they’re seated.

Craig Revel-Horwood

The only judge to have been on the panel since the very beginning of the show in 2004, Craig Revel-Horwood has a well-earned reputation for harsh criticism.

Born in Australia, Craig featured in multiple stage productions and was a regular on television before moving to Europe.

He starred as both a dancer and a singer with the famous Lido de Paris company and performed regularly in London’s West End. Craig also has a keen grasp of how routines are put together, having twice been nominated for a Laurence Olivier award for Best Choreography.

Craig is the toughest judge to please, distributing far fewer perfect 10s than the others over the last three series and one of only two judges to have scored a dance lower than three.

Shirley Ballas

As presiding head judge, Shirley Ballas joined the show in 2017 and has the casting vote when deciding which couple is to be eliminated in a dance-off.

A dancer since the age of seven, Shirley was partnered with the then British Ballroom Champion, Nigel Tiffany, when she was still just 15. A glittering dancing career peaked in the 1990s with back-to-back Latin-American championships at the Blackpool Dance Festival.

While Shirley has also been unafraid to give a poor performance a lower score, she is also one of the most prolific judges when it comes to handing out 10s.

Motsi Mabuse

The most recent addition to the show in the UK, Motsi was introduced as a judge in 2017. She is the elder sister of recently-departed professional dancer and two-time winner Oti Mabuse.

Both sisters began ballroom dancing in their native South Africa before moving to Germany, with Motsi first competing in the German equivalent of Strictly in 2007. As her media career took off, Motsi continued to dance in professional competitions, becoming the nation’s Latin champion in 2013.

Like Shirley, Motsi has given out more 10s than nines over the last three series.

Anton Du Beke

Like Craig, Anton Du Beke has been with the show since its launch, but he has recently moved over to the side of the dancefloor as the fourth judge. Over the last three series he has been the most generous scorer on average, although less likely to give performances a 10 than his two female contemporaries.

Anton first attended dance school at the age of 10 and was just 17 when he decided to pursue a career in the ballroom.

Initially dancing in the evenings and at weekends, his success in dancing competitions enabled him to turn professional in 2002. Anton and his long-time dancing partner Erin Boag caught the BBC’s eye when they won the IDTA Classic in 2003, landing them roles in the first series of Strictly.

Which dances do Strictly winners perform best?

Unsurprisingly the eventual winners tend to score better than the average celebrity, even in the early weeks of the show. However, when we looked at the spread of scores across the first five episodes of every series it was clear that a strong performance in some dances was more of an indication than in others.

Leading the way is the Paso Doble, in which eventual winners have earned over nine points more on average than the rest of the field during the first five weeks of a series.

The Charleston, American Smooth and Samba are also danced much more competently by eventual winners, who rack up around eight points more than their rivals.

Conversely don’t read too much into a well-received Quickstep, Salsa or Viennese Waltz, as former champions haven’t blown away the competition when performing these early on in the series.

Which dances are the most dangerous?

There are 13 types of dance that have been performed by at least 20 couples in the first five weeks of a Strictly series.

The most common is the Cha-Cha-Cha, performed 161 times in weeks one to five across 19 series to date. The Tango, Jive and Waltz have also been danced more than 100 times in the early stages of the show.

Those with aspirations of lifting the Glitterball should be cautious when attempting the Rumba in the opening five weeks, based on past editions of Strictly. More than a quarter of couples (17 out of 65) who performed the Rumba ended in the dance-off that week, the highest percentage of any dance type.

In contrast, the Waltz and Quickstep appear more straightforward to master, with around nine out of 10 couples avoiding the dance-off after performing one of the two routines.

Do winners start well?

While it can be difficult to pick a winner during the first few weeks of Strictly, it’s often easy to spot those unlikely to reach the latter stages.

The judges tend to score dances by eventual winners at eight or higher, while performances by other contestants rarely attract the same praise.

Only 5% of winners’ scores in the early stages have been below six, with just two dances by future champions rated at three out of 10 by one of the individual judges.

The first of those was by Darren Gough and his partner Lilia Kopylova in series 3. The cricketer received scathing reviews for his Cha-Cha-Cha in week one, culminating in a three from Craig Revel-Horwood, although he recovered well by scoring a six or higher for the rest of the competition.

Strictly fans had to wait until series 18 for another three out of 10 awarded to an eventual winner. Enter Bill Bailey, who was rated just as badly as Gough by Revel-Horwood for his Cha-Cha-Cha in week one. Alongside partner Oti Mabuse, the comedian scored seven or higher from each judge for the remainder of the show.

Meanwhile, series 14 winners Ore Oduba and Joanne Clifton were responsible for the joint-best early performance in the history of the show. Presenter Oduba scored three perfect 10s for his Jive in week four, with only Revel-Horwood’s nine preventing a clean sweep.

Last year’s runners-up John Whaite and Johannes Radebe equalled the feat with their Paso Doble in week three, with Revel-Horwood again spoiling the party with a nine out of 10.

What type of celebrity fares best?

The 15 celebrities vying for the Glitterball trophy this year have made their name in one of five different disciplines: music, sport, acting, presenting and comedy.

Musical contestants have fared the strongest of all, with more than 10% of entrants going on to win and more than a third (15 out of 39) reaching the final. They’re also the least likely to be eliminated early, which has only happened to around one in eight of them on average.

This bodes well for East and Matt Goss, who are already among the favourites, as well as outsider Kym Marsh.

Presenters and comedians have struggled the most, with around a quarter of celebrities from these backgrounds being eliminated early. This could count against co-favourite Skelton.

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All odds and markets correct as of date of publication