Mexico vs Ecuador: World Cup Round of 32 preview, predictions and bet builder tips

• Fixture: Mexico vs Ecuador

• Competition: World Cup (Round of 32)

• Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026

• Kick-off: 02:00 BST

• Venue: Azteca Stadium, Mexico City

Our prediction: Mexico 1-0 Ecuador

Mexico

Our predicted XI (4-3-3): Rangel / Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo / Lira, Romo, Gutierrez / Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones

Ecuador

Our predicted XI (4-4-2): Galindez / Franco, Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie / Yeboah, Caicedo, Vite, Angulo / Plata, Valencia

Both these teams have a very obvious focal point to their attack and for the Mexicans, it's striker Raul Jimenez - who has averaged 1.5 shots on target per game so far at this tournament.

With home advantage still a key factor for Mexico, we think they'll play on the front foot - and that should result in even more opportunities to test the goalkeeper for their No9.

On the Ecuadorian side, it's Enner Valencia who is often tasked with finding the final touch. While his finishing has been questioned as he still searches for his first goal of the tournament, he is still averaging two efforts on goal per game so far.

La Tri proved how much of a threat they can be against Germany, with a similar end-to-end game expected with the visitors well able to threaten the Mexico backline. We therefore think there is more than a chance that Valencia has at least another shot on target.

Overall, however, this knockout fixture has the makings of a fairly low-scoring affair, with both sides boasting strong defences at the World Cup so far.

Mexico are yet to concede a goal so far with three wins from three, while Ecuador's only goals against them have been Ivory Coast's last-gasp winner and Germany's controversial opener which probably should not have counted.

With a knockout situation increasing the tension, it feels likely that there will be few goals inside 90 minutes in this game, as we have seen in many of the Round of 32 games so far.

We are backing Mexico to prevail in this game, whether that be in normal time, extra-time or via a penalty shootout.

While it could be a tense affair, Mexico were the only team alongside France to win all of their group games and that should give them the edge of an Ecuador side who have only really shown their best against Germany so far.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.