Southampton vs Middlesbrough: Championship play-off semi-final second leg preview, predictions and bet builder tips

Southampton vs Middlesbrough match details

• Fixture: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

• Competition: Championship play-off semi-final second-leg

• Date: Tuesday, 12 May, 2026

• Kick-off: 20:00 BST

• Venue: St Mary's Stadium

Southampton vs Middlesbrough match prediction

Our prediction: Southampton 2-0 Middlesbrough

Southampton vs Middlesbrough predicted lineups

Southampton

Our predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Peretz / Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Manning / Downes, Jander / Scienza, Azaz, Fellows / Larin

Middlesbrough

Our predicted XI (3-4-3): Brynn / Ayling, Fry, Malanda / Targett, McGree, Morris, Brittain / Whittaker, Conway, Strelec

Southampton vs Middlesbrough bet builder tips

Southampton to reach the final

Southampton’s form throughout 2026 suggests they are favourites to book their place at Wembley.

The Saints have lost just three matches in all competitions since the turn of the year, including an FA Cup semi-final defeat to Manchester City.

Their late-season surge secured a play-off place, and they now head into this second leg unbeaten in 20 consecutive Championship matches since their defeat to Hull back in January.

Southampton’s cohesion and quality across the pitch has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the division, and our experts are backing them to prove too strong for Middlesbrough over 90 minutes.

Over 1.5 goals to be scored

The first leg may have ended goalless, but the underlying numbers suggest we should see goals in the second meeting.

Six goals have been scored across the three meetings between Southampton and Middlesbrough this season, averaging exactly two per game.

Recent matches involving both teams have also produced goals consistently, with Middlesbrough’s last five games averaging three goals per match.

The same can be said for Southampton, whose last five matches have also averaged three goals.

With a Wembley final at stake, both sides should open up more as the game progresses, making over 1.5 goals look a strong option.

Flynn Downes to be carded

Flynn Downes has developed a reputation as one of Southampton’s most combative midfielders, and another booking could be on the cards here.

The midfielder has been shown a yellow card in each of his last three matches, including the first leg against Middlesbrough last week.

Downes has collected 13 yellow cards in 37 appearances this season, meaning he receives a booking in 35% of his matches.

He has also committed four fouls across his two meetings with Middlesbrough this campaign.

With tensions expected to be high and every tackle carrying added importance, we’re backing Downes to find his way into the referee’s notebook once again.

Morgan Whittaker to have 1+ shot on target

Morgan Whittaker remains Middlesbrough’s biggest attacking threat and should be heavily involved once again at St Mary’s.

The former Plymouth attacker has enjoyed an excellent campaign, scoring 14 goals and registering seven assists from 36 Championship starts.

Whittaker is never shy about shooting either, averaging five shots every two Championship games, alongside 0.8 shots on target per match.

One of his three efforts in the first leg tested the goalkeeper, and with this second leg expected to be more open, we’re backing him to hit the target again.

He also scored twice when these sides met back in January, highlighting his ability to deliver in this fixture.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.