Stephen Ferris previews Rugby World Cup final between All Blacks and South Africa

New Zealand have prevailed in 59% of their Tests against South Africa, with a record of 62 wins, four draws, and 39 losses. Interestingly, this win rate is the lowest when they confront any nation. Recent encounters add intrigue to this showdown, as New Zealand have suffered three defeats in their last five games against South Africa, including a 35-7 loss that stands as the heaviest ever defeat for a New Zealand team.  The question is whether the All Blacks can find redemption or will South Africa become only the second team to retain the Rugby World Cup?

South Africa’s journey to the final was marked by a gruelling battle with England last Saturday. The match was characterised by wet weather, making it a true test for rugby purists. Just as this World Cup has consistently delivered drama, the closing minutes of the game were no exception. The elation for South Africa was palpable, while England endured bitter disappointment.

The taxing nature of this contest raises questions about how much emotional and physical energy South Africa have expended. Their bodies will be battered and bruised, and mental fatigue may also be a concern. In contrast, New Zealand cruised to a 44-6 victory over Argentina and enjoyed an extra day of rest due to playing on Friday night. This advantage positions them well to start the final strongly and potentially finish the game on a high note. The lingering question is whether South Africa can once again draw from their deep reserve of resilience that has unified this group of players over the past four years.

The team selections have revealed South Africa opting for a bold 7-1 split, featuring seven forwards and one back. This strategy mirrors the one they deployed when they dismantled New Zealand before the World Cup began. The decision by Rassie Erasmus is undeniably courageous. Notably, two players, Jasper Wiese and Trevor Nyakane, have seen no game time since the group stage, but they are ready and eager to contribute from the bench. Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard return to the starting line-up for South Africa, hinting at a potential shift toward a more pragmatic game plan with increased tactical kicking and an emphasis on the set-piece, a style reminiscent of their final-quarter performance against England. Once again, South Africa’s team selection has generated significant buzz, and they hope it won’t backfire in the most important rugby match of all.

On the New Zealand side, consistency reigns in their team selection, with a minor adjustment to the bench aimed at countering the threat posed by Ox Nche from the South African bench. New Zealand’s strategy hinges on their skill and tactical prowess, rather than relying solely on brute force and scrum penalties. One of New Zealand’s recent successes has been Richie Mo’unga, who has been at the heart of their impressive performances. If Mo’unga can orchestrate his forward pack to deliver quality attacking ball from set-pieces, he and his fellow backs are expected to conjure moments of magic that could challenge the dominant and aggressive South African defence. The stage is set for a Rugby World Cup final that promises to be a clash of the titans.