UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane odds, prediction for World Heavyweight Championship fight

Tom Aspinall defends the undisputed UFC World Heavyweight Championship for the first time at UFC 321, having been promoted from interim champion after Jon Jones announced his retirement in June. The proud Mancunian claimed the interim title with a first-round stoppage of Sergei Pavlovich in November 2023, and then retained it with another first-round knockout of Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304, avenging his defeat to Blaydes in 2022 which remains his only loss since signing with the UFC. He now looks to cement his status as the division’s dominant force when he faces Ciryl Gane in Abu Dhabi.

Gane is looking to reclaim the title he briefly held in 2021 when he was interim heavyweight champion. The Frenchman's only losses have come against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, two all-time greats of the sport, and with his background in Muay Thai his footwork and movement will cause Aspinall plenty of problems. Since his first-round submission loss to Jones in 2023, Gane has beaten Serghei Spivac and won a controversial split decision against Alexander Volkov, which many including Dana White thought should have gone the other way.

In the outright betting, Aspinall is the clear favourite at 1/4, with Gane 3/1 to spring an upset. A finish for Aspinall leads the method-of-victory market at 3/10 for a win by KO, TKO or submission, while a decision is 10/1. Gane is 7/2 to win inside the distance and 10/1 to take it on the scorecards.

Aspinall arrives at UFC 321 with a record of 15-3 in MMA and a perfect 100% finishing rate. Seven of his eight UFC wins have come inside the first round, and he’s shown he can end fights by knockout or submission. His mix of speed, precision and composure makes him one of the most complete heavyweights in the sport.

Gane holds a 13-2 record with a 69% finishing rate. The former interim champion’s Muay Thai background and 81-inch reach make him a smooth, technical striker who prefers to pick opponents apart from range. His movement and defence are elite, but he’ll need to stay mobile to avoid Aspinall’s early pressure.

Aspinall enters as the strong favourite and with good reason. The champion has finished all eight of his UFC wins inside the distance, seven of them in the first round, and brings a level of speed and explosiveness that few heavyweights can handle. Gane’s movement and experience make him a threat if he can settle into a rhythm, but he has come up short against the very best in the division. If Aspinall finds his range early, it’s difficult to see this lasting long, with another first-round knockout looking the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO in Round 1

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.