England vs New Zealand: 1st Test odds, preview & prediction

Match details

• Fixture: England vs New Zealand

• Venue: Lord's Cricket Ground

• Date: Thursday, June 4 - Monday, June 8

• Time: 11am BST

England

England face New Zealand in their first Test match since a disappointing Ashes series defeat in Australia. After that 4-1 defeat Down Under, both coach Brendan McCullum and captain Ben Stokes have remained in post, but there are several changes to the playing squad and it could be a new-look XI that takes the field at Lord's.

Zak Crawley has finally been dropped after another disappointing series, with Ollie Pope another long-serving batter to be omitted from the squad. Durham's Emilio Gay is likely to be given his debut at the top of the order alongside Ben Duckett, with Jacob Bethell, Joe Root and Harry Brook making up the middle order. Jamie Smith and Ben Stokes have swapped positions at six and seven.

Spinner Shoaib Bashir has been included in the squad despite not playing a match in Australia, and there is a surprising recall for Ollie Robinson, whose England career looked over due to attitude and fitness concerns. There is no doubting Robinson's quality and he has a superb Test record, with 76 wickets at an average of 22.92.

He is likely to be given the new ball with Josh Tongue, with the last selection decision between Gus Atkinson and uncapped Sonny Baker. Atkinson's excellent record at Lord's, where he has 19 wickets in two Tests, could see him given the nod. Brydon Carse is injured and Jofra Archer has been given time off following his participation in the IPL.

England predicted XI

1. Ben Duckett

2. Emilio Gay

3. Jacob Bethell

4. Joe Root

5. Harry Brook

6. Jamie Smith (wk)

7. Ben Stokes (c)

8. Gus Atkinson

9. Josh Tongue

10. Ollie Robinson

11. Shoaib Bashir

New Zealand

It might be a new era of sorts for England, but New Zealand have been one of the most consistent Test outfits for a long period of time. The Black Caps kicked off their tour with a comfortable warm-up victory over Ireland, winning by an innings and 79 runs in Belfast.

Their top order is settled, with skipper Tom Latham opening alongside Devon Conway. Kane Williamson remains one of the longer form's elite batters at three, with Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell - series top run scorer the last time the Kiwis visited - behind him at four and five. Tom Blundell will take the gloves after scoring 186 against Ireland.

Mitchell Santner has returned from a shoulder injury to make the squad, but they may opt not to risk him and pick Glenn Phillips as an extra batter and spin option. The Black Caps have a plethora of quick bowlers to choose from, with Nathan Smith and Blair Tickner making their case with five-wicket hauls in the warm-up. Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Will O'Rourke and Zak Foulkes provide them with genuine depth and they are likely to provide a threat throughout the series.

New Zealand XI

1. Tom Latham (c)

2. Devon Conway

3. Kane Williamson

4. Rachin Ravindra

5. Daryl Mitchell

6. Tom Blundell (wk)

7. Glenn Phillips

8. Nathan Smith

9. Kyle Jamieson

10. Matt Henry

11. Will O'Rourke

England vs New Zealand 1st Test prediction

New Zealand last toured England in 2022 at the height of Bazball, with the Three Lions winning a clean sweep 3-0 and playing some thrilling cricket along the way. Much has changed since then, with Jonny Bairstow, Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad among the big names to have moved on, while New Zealand stalwarts Trent Boult and Tim Southee have also departed. In what's being framed as a fresh start for England, it's vital that Brendan McCullum picks up a victory against his home nation to regain some of that positive momentum.

The omens are good for the home side, who have beaten New Zealand in nine of the ten Tests they have played at Lord's. The forecast is predicting a rain-affected match, which is likely to make the pace attacks the deciding factor. The Black Caps' fast bowlers should thrive in those conditions, while Jofra Archer will be a big miss for England. It's also likely to be Kane Williamson's final Test at Lord's, and he might want to go out with a bang at the home of cricket.

Ultimately, this is an experimental England side coming up against an experienced, quality outfit. New Zealand are currently 2nd in the World Test Championship standings while England are 7th. In the first Test of the English summer, we're predicting a defeat for the home side.

Prediction: New Zealand to win

View the latest cricket odds here.

All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.