ICC T20 World Cup final: India vs New Zealand betting odds, preview, prediction

After a month-long extravaganza of cricket, the ICC T20 World Cup has reached its finale, and it's set to be a thrilling conclusion as India meet New Zealand in the final at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. The co-hosts will be backed by a fervent home support, but New Zealand will revel in the role of underdog.

Ladbrokes brings you its full preview of the T20 World Cup final, with all the latest odds, and predicts who will be crowned world champion. Ahead of Sunday's main event, India are the favourites at odds of 2/5, with New Zealand odds of 2/1 to pull off an upset.

Match details

• Fixture: India vs New Zealand

• Venue: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad, India

• Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026

• Time: 1.30pm GMT

India

Co-hosts India have a chance to win the T20 World Cup on home soil for the first time after winning a thrilling semi-final against England by seven runs. Abhishek Sharma's struggles in the tournament continued, but Sanju Samson took full advantage of being dropped by Harry Brook to hit a match-defining 89 off 42 balls, as part of India's massive total of 253-7, which ultimately proved beyond England despite a superb ton by Jacob Bethell.

India's bowling will have given them cause for concern as England came uncomfortably close to pulling off what would have been the highest run chase in T20 history. Varun Chakravarthy has taken the joint-most wickets at the World Cup with 13, but has increasingly been targeted and conceded 64 runs from his four overs against England. Jasprit Bumrah once again proved the difference maker at the death, underlying his status as one of the greatest all-format bowlers of all time, and will surely have a crucial part to play once again in the final.

Their middle order is interchangeable and India usually look to maintain a left-hander and right-hander combination, with Shivam Dube promoted to number four to good effect against England as he hit an unbeaten 43. Ishan Kishan and captain Suryakumar Yadav have also made key contributions with the bat throughout the tournament, and Hardik Pandya is one of the world's best all-rounders in the shortest format. India are chasing their third ICC T20 world title, and aiming to become the first team to defend the trophy in the tournament's history after their triumph over South Africa in 2024.

India predicted XI

1. Abhishek Sharma

2. Sanju Samson (wk)

3. Ishan Kishan

4. Suryakumar Yadav (c)

5. Tilak Varma

6. Hardik Pandya

7. Shivam Dube

8. Axar Patel

9. Arshdeep Singh

10. Varun Chakravarthy

11. Jasprit Bumrah

New Zealand

New Zealand have once again gone under the radar throughout an ICC tournament and yet the perennial dark horses find themselves in the final. After losing to South Africa in the first group stage, they then only advanced from the Super 8s on net run rate. The Black Caps cantered to a nine-wicket victory over South Africa in the semi-finals, chasing down a target of 170 in just 12.5 overs, in no small part down to opener Finn Allen's astonishing 33-ball century. Allen hit ten fours and eight sixes en route to scoring the fastest ever hundred in T20 World Cup history.

The only selection dilemma will be whether to stick with all-rounder Jimmy Neesham, who came in for the semi-finals, or go with the extra spin option of leg spinner Ish Sodhi. In addition to Allen and opening partner Tim Seifert, Rachin Ravindra and Glenn Phillips complete an explosive top order that can take the game away from teams early on. Ravindra and skipper Mitchell Santner are an accurate and economical spin duo, while Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry always pose a threat with the new ball.

New Zealand have never won an ICC white ball trophy, finishing runners-up in the T20 World Cup in 2021, also losing in the final twice in the 50-over edition in 2015 and 2019. In terms of New Zealand and India's head-to-head record, from thirty matches India have won eighteen and New Zealand eleven, with one tie. However, the Kiwis have never lost to India in a T20 World Cup, winning all three of their meetings, most recently in 2021.

New Zealand predicted XI

1. Tim Seifert (wk)

2. Finn Allen

3. Rachin Ravindra

4. Glenn Phillips

5. Mark Chapman

6. Daryl Mitchell

7. Mitchell Santner (c)

8. Jimmy Neesham

9. Cole McConchie

10. Matt Henry

11. Lockie Ferguson

India vs New Zealand: T20 World Cup final prediction

India are understandably favourites heading into Sunday's showpiece in Ahmedabad, in what will be a remarkable atmosphere in the largest sports stadium in the world with a capacity of 132,000. Despite a few close calls, the co-hosts have maintained their frontrunner status in the odds market throughout the tournament and will hope for a jubilant ending in front of their home fans. They possess a star-studded batting lineup in fine form, barring Abhishek, and a match-winner in Bumrah. However, the pressure is all on them, and that has burdened them at home in the past. They're yet to win a T20 World Cup on home soil and haven't won an ICC title in India since the 2011 50-over World Cup. As mentioned, India also haven't defeated New Zealand at a T20 World Cup in three attempts.

New Zealand are looking to break their long trophy hoodoo and win their first ever ICC white ball trophy. They lost to Australia in 20 overs in 2021 and 50 overs in 2015, and who could forget their defeat to England 'by the barest of all margins' in 2019. The Black Caps looked like an outside contender for much of the tournament, but have roared to the fore and put India on notice after their dominant win over South Africa in the semi-finals. South Africa had won all of their games up to that point and looked the tournament's best team, but New Zealand dominated both powerplays, taking early South African wickets and then smashing 84 runs in their own first six overs. That's a winning formula that can be replicated, and the Kiwis are unlikely to gift India second chances in the field as England did.

With all that said, it's very hard to look past India in a final at home. They are the sport's powerhouse and have momentum behind them after their remarkable batting display in the semi-final, and the pitch will likely favour their big-hitters again. That could play into Finn Allen's hands, but we think the depth of India's lineup will just about prove too strong. New Zealand are unlikely to go quietly, and it should be a thrilling game which will go down to the wire, to conclude a fantastic tournament with co-hosts India winning the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Prediction: India to win

View the latest cricket odds here.

All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.