Ladbrokes looks at the odds of Liverpool and Bournemouth needing to play a play-off match to decide who reaches the Champions League.
Heading into the final Premier League game of the season this weekend, Liverpool sit in fifth, three points ahead of Bournemouth.
Should a certain set of conditions be met, including a win for Bournemouth and a loss for Liverpool, there'd be nothing separating the two sides.
As we approach the final day of the season, Ladbrokes looks at the odds of Bournemouth and Liverpool having to play a Champions League play-off.
This weekend in the Premier League, Liverpool know that a draw against Brentford at Anfield will guarantee them a spot in the Champions League next season.
Bournemouth sit just three points behind Liverpool in sixth place. Should Liverpool lose to Brentford and Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest by a sizeable margin, we could be on for a never-seen-before play-off tie.
So, what are the odds of a one-off match needing to be played to separate Liverpool and Bournemouth at the end of the season? With a spot in the Champions League on the line, Ladbrokes breaks it down.
Champions League play-off tie conditions
Could Liverpool and Bournemouth have to play a 39th Premier League match?
Before looking at what needs to happen for a play-off tie to be held, it's probably worth assessing where Liverpool and Bournemouth both sit heading into the final game of the season.
Liverpool host Brentford at Anfield on the final day of the season, with Bournemouth travelling to the Midlands to face Nottingham Forest.
Should Liverpool lose 1-0 to Brentford, they'll finish the season on 59 points. If that is the result on the final day, the reigning champions will have scored 62 goals and conceded 53, leaving them with a goal difference of nine.
The odds of Arne Slot's side losing their final game of the season 1-0 currently sit at 12/1. With an assumed probability of just shy of 8%, the bookies clearly think it's unlikely, but not impossible.
Taking place at the same time is Bournemouth's match at the City Ground against Nottingham Forest, with the Europa League semi-finalists already having secured their spot in the Premier League next season.
To match Liverpool's points, goal difference, goals scored and goals conceded, Bournemouth would have to beat Forest by a scoreline of 5-0. The odds of that happening currently sit at 45/1.
Liverpool losing 1-0 and Bournemouth winning 5-0 would leave both teams on the below. As you can see, in this instance there's nothing to separate the two sides.
Team
Played
Points
Goal Difference
Goals Scored
Goals Against
Liverpool
38
59
9
62
53
Bournemouth
38
59
9
62
53
Now, the Premier League would look at the head-to-head matches between both sides this season, but that doesn't help matters either.
Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth - August 15, 2025
Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool - January 25, 2026
Liverpool and Bournemouth have each beaten the other once this season, so the Premier League would then be forced to find another way to decide who gets the fifth and final Champions League spot.
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The odds of both results going the way they'd need to for a Champions League play-off tie to take place currently sit at 597/1, suggesting it's a serious, serious longshot.
With an assumed probability of 0.17%, it's pretty unlikely for us to end up seeing a Champions League play-off tie, but the never-seen-before situation occurring would be a rather exciting way to end what has been a thrilling season.
