Who will win the Mercury Prize?: Ladbrokes analyses the odds

The betting odds for the top contenders for the Mercury Prize this year, as of September 11, are as follows.

Cal Gildart of Ladbrokes put it clearly: Wolf Alice might have made history with their nomination, but CMAT is the clear favourite to claim this year’s Mercury Prize following the nominations.

To understand why these odds matter, it’s helpful to look back at the Mercury Prize’s history, its prestige, and what winning has meant for previous artists.

• The Mercury Prize (originally the Mercury Music Prize) was established in 1992 by Jon Webster and Robert Chandler, in association with the British Phonographic Industry and British Association of Record Dealers. Its aim was to create a critical counterpoint to mainstream awards like the BRITs, celebrating artistic merit over commercial success.

• Eligibility: Albums released by British or Irish artists (or bands with majority British/Irish members) in the qualifying period may be submitted. An independent panel, including musicians, critics, presenters, producers, then selects a shortlist of 12 albums, judged purely on artistic and musical merit, not sales or chart performance.

• The winner receives a monetary prize and critical recognition that often drives increased sales and visibility

Over more than three decades, the Mercury Prize has been responsible for launching careers, uplifting lesser-known artists, and sometimes making unexpected picks.

Some highlights:

• Primal Scream – Screamadelica (1992): The first ever winner; its success helped shape UK alternative music in the ’90s.

• Portishead – Dummy (1995), Pulp – Different Class (1996): Both albums have become classics, defining trip-hop in the first case, Britpop/social commentary in the other.

• PJ Harvey: The only artist to have won twice (2001 with Stories From the City, Stories From the Sea, and 2011 with Let England Shake), and one of the most decorated in nominations.

The 2025 shortlist is drawing attention for several reasons:

• Diversity of genre and status: There are both well-known acts (e.g. Wolf Alice, Pulp) and relative newcomers (like Jacob Alon) on the shortlist.

• Wolf Alice’s unique record: They are the first act to have been nominated for each of their first four albums.

• First time outside London: The 2025 ceremony will be held in Newcastle, at the Utilita Arena – the first time the Mercury Prize event has been held outside London.

Given all of that, what makes CMAT the favourite to win the 2025 Mercury Prize?

• Her album Euro-Country has clearly struck a chord with both the critics and the public, enough for bookies to set her as front runner.

• The odds suggest confidence that she has what it takes to win over the judging panel, especially against stiff competition from Fontaines D.C. and others.

• Sometimes, betting markets reflect momentum: buzz, reviews, media coverage, and sometimes even underdog support or surprise draws in other albums can shift odds.

As next month's ceremony approaches, here are some things to keep an eye on:

1. Critical reception & reviews of Euro-Country vs its rivals – do the reviews run strong, are there standout singles, live performances?

2. Public and industry buzz – interviews, touring, social media – these can sway perceptions even if not directly influencing judges.

3. Past precedent – the Mercury has sometimes shocked us with winners less favoured by bookies or outside the mainstream. Betting favourites don’t always win.

4. The judging panel – any commentary from judges, any controversies or surprise omissions can change narratives.

For 2025, while there are several deserving contenders, CMAT currently looks to be the one to beat according to the bookmakers. Euro-Country must impress both critically and stylistically for her to convert those odds into a win.

But the history of the Mercury Prize reminds us: surprises happen, legacies loom large, and artistic merit (not sales) is supposed to be what counts.

View the latest TV and music odds.

All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.