The Ashes: Australia vs England 1st Test betting odds and prediction

England begin their quest to reclaim the urn with one of the toughest assignments in world cricket. Perth’s fast, lively surface is built for pace and rewards bowlers who can hit the pitch hard, but the opening Test of the 2025/26 Ashes feels different to previous visits. With Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood both ruled out, Australia’s attack looks lighter than usual and England will sense a real chance to land the first blow away from home.

While the Optus Stadium is newer than the old WACA, the characteristics remain similar. The surface offers steep bounce, true carry and enough pace to shift matches in an instant. This Test often moves quickly, with batters who adjust early and bowlers who maintain accuracy with the Kookaburra typically shape the match inside the first couple of days.

For England, this Test is about managing pressure and limiting early damage. Their top order could face the sternest examination of the tour, especially if put into bat on the first morning. Joe Root’s experience will be crucial in stabilising innings, while Harry Brook’s aggressive style could be a weapon if he settles. Ben Stokes’ leadership and ability to shift momentum remain central to England’s game plan. Mark Wood looks to have survived a fitness scare in England's warm-up game and could play, with the only selection decision left to decide if spinner Shoaib Bashir plays or go with an express pace attack.

With Cummins and Hazlewood missing, Australia lean heavily on Mitchell Starc to lead the attack. Scott Boland, however, could have a significant and potentially match-defining role. He has tormented England in the past but they will feel if they can get after him, that could set the tone for the whole series. Nathan Lyon may play a supporting, rather than central, role on a pitch that traditionally suits pace over spin. Australia's opening batsmen has been a game of musical chairs but the middle order retains proven class in Labuschagne, Smith and Head.

• Zak Crawley

• Ben Duckett

• Ollie Pope

• Joe Root

• Harry Brook

• Ben Stokes (C)

• Jamie Smith (WK)

• Gus Atkinson

• Jofra Archer

• Brydon Carse

• Mark Wood

• Shoaib Bashir

• Usman Khawaja

• Jake Weatherald

• Marnus Labuschagne

• Steve Smith (C)

• Travis Head

• Cameron Green

• Alex Carey (WK)

• Mitchell Starc

• Brendan Doggett

• Scott Boland

• Nathan Lyon

This is England’s best opportunity to claim a Test in Australia since their last victory on the 2010–11 tour. With Cummins and Hazlewood absent, Australia’s attack loses both accuracy and experience, placing extra strain on Starc and the supporting bowlers. If England’s top order can negotiate the first innings and if their quicks exploit the surface as expected, they are well placed to edge the series opener and strike a critical first blow Down Under.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.