AFC Championship odds: Broncos vs Patriots point spread and betting analysis
If the Nix injury hadn’t been announced immediately following the Broncos’ Divisional Round win, you would likely see Denver favoured at home.
The line saw some slight fluctuation early, moving to New England -5.5, but bettors seem to have a little more faith in Denver’s backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham as the spread is back to -4.5.
Unfortunately, these teams haven’t met in a couple years, with Pats quarterback Drake Maye still in college the last time they faced off. This will be a repeat of the 2015 AFC Championship Game, played almost exactly 10 years ago. Denver won that game 20-18 en route to their most recent Super Bowl title.
When you look at home and road splits this season, neither team really has the edge. While the Broncos are 9-1 straight up at Mile High this season, New England is a perfect 8-0 on the road. For what it’s worth, the altitude seems to have helped Denver in the past as they are 14-6 in their last 20 home games against the Patriots.
New England has been a much better cover option this season. The Pats are 14-5 against the spreading, covering seven times each at home and on the road. The Broncos are 8-10 ATS overall, including 6-4 ATS at home.
Oddsmakers don’t have much faith in the AFC right now as New England is 5/2 to win the Super Bowl on the NFL futures board, while Denver is a massive 12/1 underdog. That trails both NFC teams, Seattle (6/4) and the Rams (11/5).
