CFP National Championship: Indiana vs Miami odds and prediction

The biggest game of the college football season is here as the Indiana Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Indiana arrives as a 7.5-point favourite on the spread, with the points total set at 47.5.

Indiana University head coach Curt Cignetti has overseen a remarkable turnaround since taking over in 2023, when the Hoosiers finished with a 3-9 record. In just his second season, Cignetti led IU to a 12-0 regular season and now has them in the National Championship for the first time in the university's history.

The Hoosiers are led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who won the Heisman Trophy for the best player in college football and is the presumptive #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The 22-year-old field general has thrown for 3,349 yards, 41 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this year, and is fresh off a five-TD performance in Indiana's emphatic 56-22 win over Oregon in the semi-final.

Indiana are an experienced team, with an average starting age of 23 years old, and have a nice balance on offense behind running-back tandem Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, while wide receiver duo Omar Cooper Jr and Elijah Sarratt have combined for 28 touchdowns this season. The defense has forced 29 turnovers this season at a rate of nearly two per game, including a remarkable pick-six by D'Angelo Ponds on the first play of the semi-final.

10th-seed Miami have knocked off Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss on their way to the title game, powered by a fearsome defense containing star edge rushers Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain. Jr, who have tallied 19 sacks between them. The key will be whether the Hurricanes are able to win the line of scrimmage against Indiana's high-powered offensive line, because if they can't put pressure on Mendoza it could be a long night.

Quarterback Carson Beck put in an impressive performance in their 31-27 semi-final win over Ole Miss, throwing for 268, 2 TDs and an interception, while running back Mark Fletcher Jr has averaged over 130 rushing yards per game in the postseason.

18-year-old freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney appears destined for future stardom, with 1,089 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in his debut season after enrolling at Miami aged 17. Number two receiver Keelan Marion also emerged as a big threat in the semi-final, catching seven passes for 116 yards and a touchdown.

Prediction: Indiana 34-20 Miami

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.