Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: Champions League preview, predictions and bet builder tips

Arsenal have been one of the standout teams in Europe this season, going unbeaten in their 13 Champions League matches so far. A draw in the first leg in Spain has left them in a strong position heading back to the Emirates Stadium.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, remain a dangerous opponent under Diego Simeone, but will need to produce something special in North London to overturn the tie.

With a place in the final on the line, read on for our in-depth Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid bet builder, and don’t forget to check out our complete preview of every single Champions League match from this gameweek.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match details

Fixture: Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: Tuesday, 5 May, 2026
Kick-off: 20:00 BST
Venue: Emirates Stadium

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match prediction

Our prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Atletico Madrid

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid predicted lineups

Arsenal

Our predicted XI (4-3-3): Raya / Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie / Zubimendi, Odegaard, Rice / Saka, Gyokeres, Eze

Atletico Madrid

Our predicted XI (4-4-2): Oblak / Molina, Pubill, Le Normand, Ruggeri / Baena, Cardoso, Koke, Lookman / Alvarez, Griezmann

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid bet builder tips

Arsenal to qualify

Arsenal have been exceptional in the Champions League this season, going unbeaten in 13 consecutive matches in the competition.

A draw in the first leg in Spain has put them in a strong position heading into this return leg at the Emirates, where they have already shown their quality against top opposition.

The Gunners also have recent history on their side in this fixture, having beaten Atletico Madrid 4-0 at home, and we’re backing them to get the job done once again.

With momentum, home advantage and confidence all in their favour, our experts expect Arsenal to progress to the final.

Under 3.5 goals to be scored

Despite the high stakes, this doesn’t look like a game that will produce a flurry of goals.

You have to go back to February for the last time an Arsenal match saw over 3.5 goals, highlighting how controlled and disciplined their recent performances have been.

The last time Arsenal were involved in a game with four or more goals in either the Premier League or Champions League was their 3-2 win over Kairat on January 28, 2026.

Atletico Madrid’s recent European matches also point towards a tighter contest, with none of their last three Champions League game, against Barcelona and Arsenal, seeing more than three goals scored.

All signs suggest a relatively low-scoring semi-final second leg.

Viktor Gyokeres to score

With Kai Havertz sidelined, Viktor Gyokeres is expected to lead the line for Arsenal, and he comes into this game in strong form.

The Swedish striker has scored over 20 goals in all competitions this season, including a brace against Fulham at the weekend.

He also found the net in the first leg against Atletico Madrid, underlining his ability to deliver on the big stage.

Gyokeres averages five shots every two Champions League matches, and with Arsenal likely to create chances at home, he looks a strong candidate to score again.

Julian Alvarez to have 1+ shot on target

Julian Alvarez was a constant threat in the first leg and should be heavily involved once again for Atletico Madrid.

We tipped him to register a shot on target last week, and he delivered, scoring from the penalty spot after an active performance.

Alvarez averages over 1.5 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season and tested David Raya twice in the reverse fixture.

He also managed six shots in total in that match, showing just how central he is to Atletico’s attacking play.

With Atletico needing a result, expect Alvarez to test the Arsenal goalkeeper at least once again.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.