Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal: Champions League preview, predictions and bet builder tips

Arsenal, for the second year running, travel to Madrid for a knockout tie in the Champions League. However, unlike last year, where they played Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, Arsenal face Atletico Madrid this year.

This isn't the first time the two teams have met this season though, as in the league phase of the competition, Atletico travelled to North London to face the Gunners.

The score in October 2025 was 4-0 to Arsenal, but we aren't expecting a repeat of that as the two sides prepare to share the field in Spain in the semi-finals of the competition.

With it all on the line, read on for our in-depth Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal bet builder, and don't forget to check out our complete preview of every single Champions League match from this gameweek.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal match details

• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal

• Competition: Champions League

• Date: Wednesday, 29 April, 2026

• Kick-off: 20:00 BST

• Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal match prediction

Our prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal predicted lineups

Atletico Madrid

Our predicted XI (4-4-2): Oblak / Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Ruggeri / Simeone, Koke, Cardoso, Lookman / Alvarez, Sorloth

Arsenal

Our predicted XI (4-3-3): Raya / Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie / Zubimendi, Odegaard, Rice / Martinelli, Gyokeres, Saka

Our official match prediction is for a draw, but to hedge our bets we're going with a 'double chance' pick in our bet builder, covering us for both an Arsenal win and a draw.

Both Atletico and Arsenal are naturally defensive teams and we expect both to cancel each other out in a game as big as a Champions League semi-final.

But if one team is going to win the match, we expect it to be Arsenal. They're defensively strong, a threat from set-pieces and have already beaten Atletico Madrid 4-0 this season.

Under 2.5 goals

The 'league phase' match between these two sides saw over 3.5 goals scored, but we really aren't expecting the same to happen in the semi-final first-leg this week.

Atletico will look to frustrate Arsenal, while the Gunners know that a draw away, with a home leg at the Emirates next week, suits them quite well.

Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 100% of Arsenal's Champions League knockout ties this season, so the data backs this pick up too.

Julian Alvarez 1+ shot on target

Julian Alvarez is having such a good season for Atletico Madrid that, according to reports, Arsenal and Barcelona both want to sign him this summer.

Alvarez has the opportunity to impress when he faces one of those clubs this week in the Champions League, and we're tipping him to be heavily involved.

The ex-Man City man is averaging three shots on target every two Champions League matches this season, and we're tipping him to have at least one effort on goal against Arsenal this week.

Doesn't discount the Argentine scoring too, with Alvarez finding the back of the net nine times across his 13 Champions League matches so far this season, quite an impressive return.

Martin Zubimendi to be carded

Martin Zubimendi has picked up a yellow card in 40% of his Champions League matches this season, including against Atletico Madrid earlier on in the season.

Zubimendi is always heavily involved for Arsenal, and we expect that to be no different against an Atletico side who will allow their opponents to have the ball and look to cause damage on the break.

The Spaniard was unwell last week and still managed to play against Newcastle at the weekend. He's showing signs of tiredness as we reach the end of the season, and we expect that to result in Zubimendi finding himself in the referee's book.

You can bet on each of these markets individually, or combine them to create an Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Bet Builder.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.