Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: UCL Round of 16 Odds, Lineups & Predictions

• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
• Competition: UEFA Champions League – Round of 16 (First Leg)
• Date: Tuesday, 4 March 2025
• Kick-off: 20:00 GMT
• Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
  

Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid meet in the Champions League knockout stage in what promises to be another fiercely contested derby. With Madrid boasting an elite home record in Europe and Atlético’s defensive resilience under Simeone, this tie is set to be a tactical chess match with a place in the quarter-finals on the line.

• Over 2.5 Goals: 64% probability
• Both Teams to Score: 58% probability
• Real Madrid to Score First: 63% probability
• Win Probability: Real Madrid: 54%, Atlético Madrid: 25%. Draw: 21%

Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last three meetings against Atlético, but Atlético have won in European competition before (2018 UEFA Super Cup, 4-2). Will Madrid’s firepower secure a first-leg advantage, or can Atlético’s counter-attacking strategy deliver another surprise?

Match Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Aston Villa

• Real Madrid Wins: 5
• Atlético Madrid Wins: 3
• Draws: 2
• Last European Meeting: Atlético Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid (2018 UEFA Super Cup)

Across all domestic competitions, these rivals have met 228 times, with Real Madrid winning 111, Atlético winning 56, and 61 ending in draws.

Recent Matches (All Competitions):

• Loss Real Betis 2-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
• Win: Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid (Spanish Cup)
• Win: Real Madrid 2-0 Girona (La Liga)
• Win: Real Madrid 3-1 Man City (Champions League)
• Draw: Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)

Key Insights:

• Madrid eliminated Man City with a dominant 6-3 aggregate win in the previous round.
• Four wins in their last five matches across all competitions.
• Strong home record in Europe, with 21 wins in their last 28 UCL home games.
• Unbeaten in their last three matches against Atlético, including two league draws this season.
  

Recent Matches (All Competitions)

• Win: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
• Draw: Barcelona 4-4 Atlético Madrid (Spanish Cup)
• Win: Valencia 0-3 Atlético Madrid (La Liga)
• Draw: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
• Draw: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético Madrid (La Liga)

Key Insights:

• Atlético qualified directly for the Round of 16 after finishing 5th in the league phase.
• Only one away win in their last nine European matches against Spanish opposition.
• Winless in their last three against Real Madrid.
• Atlético’s only away victory in Europe vs a Spanish side was at Valencia (2012 UEFA Europa League semi-final, 1-0).
  

Strengths:

• Midfield control led by Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, and Luka Modrić.
• Strong in European knockout ties, particularly against Spanish teams.
• Devastating in transitions, with Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé’s pace.
• Defensive stability at home, losing just three of their last 28 UCL matches.

Weaknesses:

• High defensive line susceptible to quick counters.
• Struggles against deep defensive setups—a style Atlético has mastered.
  

Strengths:

• Defensive discipline and tactical structure under Simeone.
• Set-piece threat, with Griezmann, Llorente, and Giménez key in aerial duels.
• Efficient pressing and counter-attacks, utilizing Griezmann and Alvarez.
• Knockout experience in UCL, including recent wins over Liverpool and Inter.

Weaknesses:

• Poor away record against Real Madrid in Europe.
• Struggles to generate clear-cut chances when sitting too deep.
• Inconsistency in attack, often failing to convert opportunities.
  

Real Madrid (4-3-3)

• Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
• Defenders: Fede Valverde, Antonio Rüdiger, Raul Asensio, Ferland Mendy
• Midfielders: Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham
• Forwards: Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo

Atlético Madrid (4-4-2)

• Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
• Defenders: Marcos Llorente, José María Giménez, Robin Le Normand, Javi Galan
• Midfielders: Giuliano Simeone, Rodrigo De Paul, Pablo Barrios, Samuel Lino
• Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez
  

• Real Madrid’s European pedigree at home is unmatched.
• Atlético’s defensive structure will make this difficult, but Madrid’s firepower should break through.
• A close contest, but Madrid’s individual quality should prove decisive.
  

• Koke (42 Madrid derby appearances) is one game away from surpassing Sergio Ramos' record (43). However, the veteran could start this game on the substitutes bench. 
• Diego Simeone has faced Ancelotti 26 times, winning 9, drawing 8, and losing 9.
• Thibaut Courtois previously won La Liga and the Europa League with Atlético before joining Real Madrid.

This promises to be another intense Madrid Derby, with Real Madrid aiming to take a first-leg lead before the return fixture at the Metropolitano. Expect a tactical battle, moments of brilliance, and Champions League drama at its finest.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.