Croatia v Spain: More goals expected in Nations League final

On Wednesday, the Croats secured a 4-2 extra-time victory over the Netherlands, the tournament hosts, to complete a decent week for our Nations League betting tips.

We advised a score draw on Netherlands v Croatia at 17/5 and both teams to score between Spain and Italy at 10/11 was wrapped up after 11 minutes, so hopefully we can pick out a couple of winning selections from the final and third-place play-off for which the Dutch are 5/4 to beat Italy.

Croatia v Spain (Sun, 19.45)

Goals featured heavily in the last three meetings between these countries, with the lowest-scoring encounter a 3-2 victory for Croatia in the inaugural Nations League competition which avenged a 6-0 drubbing in Alicante.

At Euro 2020 two years ago, Croatia scored twice in the last five minutes to take the game to extra time, but Spain reached the quarter-finals with two goals in the extra period for a 5-3 victory in one of the games of the tournament.

🇭🇷🆚🇪🇸 All you need to know… #NationsLeague

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 16, 2023

In last year’s Nations League finals, there were goals at both ends in all four matches and that was the case in both of this week’s semi-finals, so we expect a similar outcome on Sunday.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals would have paid out in the previous two matches between these nations and in both semi-finals, so we’ll go with that option at 6/5 even though the match could be cagier with a trophy up for grabs.

For those looking at higher odds, Spain to win or draw, both teams to score in the second half and at least three goals stands out at 4/1, but if you fancy a Croatia win they can be backed at 12/1 to score and concede in a match involving four goals or more.

Netherlands v Italy (Sun, 14.00)

Ronald Koeman and Roberto Mancini could ring the changes for the third-place play-off, but even though there is little kudos attached to this match, we still expect the goals to flow in Enschede.

There were a combined 27 shots in Thursday’s clash between Spain and Italy, 10 of which were on target, so an open game looks possible.

🗣 #Mancini: "Spain deserved the win even if they scored late on. Playing a slightly different way than usual tactically has probably cost us in the end" #SPAITA #NationsLeague #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/aiGvXPQdpS

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 15, 2023

Three of the last six meetings between the countries have ended in 1-1 draws which is available at 11/2, while it’s 20/21 on goals at both ends and at least three goals.

Both options look feasible, but for the last of our Nations League betting tips we’re on the Dutch to be involved in another score draw at 3/1, the same price as both teams to score in the first half which would have paid out in Italy’s semi-final against Spain.

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All odds and markets correct as of date of publication