NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams odds, preview and prediction

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Not too often you see a home team as more than a field goal underdog in as late as the NFL’s Divisional Round as we have in Rams-Bears on Sunday, but it’s not unheard of. The winner would host the NFC Championship Game if the No. 6 San Francisco 49ers upset the No. 1 Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday, otherwise the winner will go to the Pacific Northwest for a trip to the Super Bowl.

Three of the four teams still standing in the NFC are from the West Division. It’s the fourth time in the history of the Divisional Round that one division has three representatives at this point in the playoffs and first since the 2022 NFC East. Those previous three only produced one Super Bowl champion: Dallas from the 1992 NFC East.

The last meeting between these clubs was the 2024 regular season with Chicago winning, 24-18, at home in Week 4. Caleb Williams threw for a score, and D’Andre Swift had 165 yards from scrimmage and a rushing TD. Matthew Stafford didn’t have a TD for the Rams and was picked off once. Star Los Angeles wideout Puka Nacua was out injured.

These clubs have met in the playoffs twice previously and the home team won both – last Chicago in the 1985 NFC title game also at Soldier Field.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were -10.5 in the Wild-Card Round at Carolina, the biggest road favourite in the playoffs since the merger. They were lucky to escape, 34-31, as Matthew Stafford’s third TD pass of the day, a 19-yarder to tight end Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left, was the winner. That was his second go-ahead pass TD of the fourth, making him one of just six QBs all-time with at least two in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

There were four total go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth of that game, marking only the fourth post-season game ever with such. It was Stafford’s sixth career 300-yard passing game on the road, the most by a QB in playoff history. He injured the index finger on his throwing hand, but X-rays were negative. It’s being called a sprain, and Stafford will play.

The Rams improved to 5-5 in one-score games this season and 2-4 in those decided by four or fewer points. But the news was not all good. Special teams directly contributed to three losses during the year and head coach Sean McVay fired that coordinator late in it.

The Rams had a punt blocked in the Carolina win, their fifth kick blocked this season. Keep that in mind. Cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon will miss the remainder of the postseason after reinjuring his shoulder against the Panthers. The Rams are 14-6 against the spread in their past 20.

Chicago Bears

Down 21-3 in the third quarter and 21-6 in the fourth at home to bitter rival Green Bay on Saturday night, the Bears looked dead. But they won six games when trailing in the final two minutes of regulation in the regular season, an NFL record, and did it again Saturday with a stunning 31-27 victory for the largest playoff comeback win in franchise history.

Caleb Williams’ second TD pass of the fourth quarter with 1:43 left to DJ Moore proved the winner. Williams joined Kurt Warner as the only players to throw for at least 350 yards and win their playoff debut. The Bears became the fourth team in NFL history to win a playoff game when trailing by at least 15 entering the fourth. Their 25 points scored in the fourth were the third-most in NFL post-season history by any club.

Chicago is now 3-3 this season in games it trails by at least 10 points in the final five minutes. The rest of the NFL is 3-158. However, left tackle Ozzy Trapilo and linebacker TJ Edwards both suffered injuries that likely end their seasons. The Bears are 11-5 ATS in their past 16.

Prediction: Bears 23-24 Rams

The Seattle Seahawks are the current favourites to win Super Bowl LX, ahead of the LA Rams and Buffalo Bills.

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.