NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans odds, preview and prediction

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Odds: Patriots vs Texans Point Spread and Betting Analysis

How great was Wild Card Weekend? There were 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in the six games, already the most in a single post-season all-time. There were also four game-winning touchdowns in the final 3:00 and four comeback wins in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. Those are both the most in a single playoffs all-time as well.

The winner of Sunday’s Houston at New England matchup would visit AFC top-seeded Denver in the conference title game if the Broncos take care of business against No. 6 Buffalo on Saturday. If Josh Allen and the Bills win, then the Texans-Patriots winner would host the AFC Championship Game. To win the AFC, the Pats are 23/10 favourites and the Texans 17/5. Houston is one of four franchises to never reach a Super Bowl, but the only one left standing alongside Jacksonville (eliminated on WC Weekend), Cleveland and Detroit (neither made playoffs).

These teams didn’t play this season but did in Week 6 of the 2024 season at New England, and the Texans rolled, 41-21. CJ Stroud threw three TD passes, and Joe Mixon rushed for 102 yards and a TD while catching a TD pass. He missed this entire season injured. That was the first NFL start for then-Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye. He had three TD passes but two interceptions and was sacked four times.

New England is 2-0 all-time vs. Houston in the playoffs and 7-1 in the series at home, including playoffs, with that lone loss in 2024.

Houston Texans

I projected the Texans to win 20-17 in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but they likely sent Aaron Rodgers into retirement with a 30-6 victory, their franchise-record 10th straight win. Houston scored 23 fourth-quarter points, and the NFL’s No. 1 total and No. 2 scoring defence had two touchdowns, a Sheldon Rankins 33-yard fumble return and a Calen Bullock 50-yard interception return. The Texans became only the second team in NFL playoff history to score at least twice defensively and not allow a touchdown. The other was Chicago in a 73-0 win over Washington in 1940 NFL championship game. Houston is the only active franchise never to reach a conference title game and is 0-6 all-time in the Divisional Round. The Texans can become the first team to start a season 0-3 and reach a conference title game. However, No. 1 wideout Nico Collins left the Steelers win with a concussion and the race is on in a short week to be cleared. He had 71 catches for 1,117 yards and six TDs in 15 regular-season games. Houston is 6-2 against the spread in its past eight.

New England Patriots

Drake Maye’s playoff debut was a success on Sunday as New England beat the visiting Chargers, 16-3. It was the Patriots’ first playoff win since the Super Bowl following the 2018 season vs. the Rams and their first post-season win without Tom Brady since the 1997 Wild Card vs. the Dolphins. It was only the fifth time in Patriots history that they won a playoff game scoring fewer than 20 points.

Maye threw for 268 yards and a TD and led the team with 66 yards rushing. He looked a little nervous at first, going 6-for-15 in the first half, his worst completion percentage (40%) in a half this season. With one more win, that would be 16 for Maye this season to tie the NFL record for most by a QB in his first or second NFL season. The Patriots have won eight straight Divisional Round games, the longest such streak in league history. However, the status of Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez is up in the air after suffering a concussion in the victory. During the season, he totaled 69 tackles while recording a team-high 12 passes defended, but no interceptions in 15 games. New England is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 as a favourite.

Prediction: New England Patriots 23-20 Houston Texans

The Seattle Seahawks are the current favourites to win Super Bowl LX, ahead of the LA Rams and Buffalo Bills.

Check out Ladbrokes' explainer of the NFL playoffs, as well as our beginner's guide to betting on American Football.

View the latest NFL odds.

Explore more Ladbrokes NFL content here.

All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.